Will ‘Who the F–k Is Greg?’ Viral Ad Help Sink Greg Abbott in Texas Gov Race?

Well the Doc opened up the old mailbag today and here’s what poured out.

Dear Dr. Ads,

There I was, minding my own business and tooling around Vanity Fair, when I came across this piece by Kelly Rissman about a digital ad getting a lot of attention in the Lone Star state.

An ad criticizing Texas Governor Greg Abbott has gone viral, emphasizing his harsh abortion laws, as his re-election campaign presses on.

The ad by Mothers Against Greg Abbott PAC—the “other ‘MAGA’”—depicts a doctor telling a pregnant woman and her partner that their child has “a catastrophic brain abnormality,” and will suffer horrifically, experiencing seizures and choking on her own fluids; she will only live a few hours, if she survives at all. The doctor says he will need a decision on termination, but can’t advise the couple: “I wish I could tell you what to do, but there’s only one person who can make this choice — and that person is Greg.”

What’s the deal here, Doc, in your professional opinion?

– Death and Texas

Dear D&T,

Once again we need to begin with this Federally mandated warning: Dr. Ads is not a licensed physician.

Whatever.

The ad refers to Texas’s bounty-hunter abortion law, “SB 8, a law that [allows] private citizens to sue anyone who ‘aids or abets’ performing abortions” after the sixth week of a pregnancy. That deeply cynical piece of legislation, designed to short-circuit any judicial oversight, is taken to its imagined extreme in the Mothers Against Greg Abbott ad.

While Vanity Fair’s Rissman says the ad “probably won’t help the governor’s re-election campaign,” the Real Clear Politics polling average in the race has Abbott up by six points over Democrat Beto O’Rourke, 47.8% to 41.8% (although the most recent poll – Quinnipiac’s in early June – had Abbott up by five).

The Texas Newsroom’s Sergio Martinez-Beltran reported this yesterday on NPR’s All Things Considered.

On immigration, guns, abortion and just about every other issue, Beto O’Rourke and Abbott have polar opposite views. And O’Rourke is trying to get the votes of Republicans and independents who are turned off by Abbott’s rhetoric. O’Rourke is seeing some gains. The latest statewide polls show him trailing Abbott by just five points. O’Rourke also outraised Abbott by $4 million in the last fundraising period. However, Abbott has more money than O’Rourke.

O’Rourke is clearly hoping the voters of Texas will be asking “Where the F–k Is Greg?” after November 8th.

Won’t Democrats Eventually Get Burned By Their Ads Boosting GOP Crazies?

Well the Doc opened up the old mailbag today and here’s what poured out.

Dear Dr. Ads,

There I was, minding my own business and reading Charlie Sykes’s Morning Shots newsletter at The Bulwark, when I came across this item linking to a Lachlan Markay piece at Axios.

FFS. “Democrats boost right-wing challenger to GOP Trump foe.”

A new TV ad from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee portrays Republican John Gibbs as the true pro-Trump conservative in his effort to unseat Republican Rep. Peter Meijer (R-Mich.) — aligning with Gibbs’ own campaign messaging.

  • Trump endorsed Gibbs’ challenge after Meijer voted to impeach the former president over his role in fomenting the Jan. 6 Capitol siege…

Be smart: The spot is couched as an attack ad, saying “the Gibbs-Trump agenda is too conservative for West Michigan.”

  • Despite the framing, it hits on precisely the issues any Trump-backed Republican would want to be elevated before a primary contest.

What the hell, Doc – does this seem like a prescription for victory in November?

– Dimocrat Watcher

Dear Watcher,

The Doc has been on this gambit by Democrats like Brown on Williamson for the past two months (see here and here).

But there are plenty of others in the punditocracy also dissecting it.

Let’s begin with the ad “attacking” John Gibbs that Lachlan Markay noted in his Axios piece.

The Bulwark’s eminently sane and always readable Jonathan V. Last had this to say about that spot.

Here are the relevant facts:

  • Gibbs is an insane conspiracy theorist—Hillary does Satanic rituals!—who is manifestly unfit for office.
  • Gibbs should lose this primary. So the add serves no “preparing the ground for the general” function.
  • The ad will help Gibbs because he’s struggling with name ID and hasn’t been able to run his own ads.
  • Again: Meijer is one of the ten Republican House members who voted to impeach Trump.

JVL’s conclusion: “[Going] into a race purely in the hopes that maybe the insane person will pull an upset over Meijer is not just foolish and dishonorable, but dangerous, too . . . This is the bad kind of boosting. The kind that the DCCC absolutely should not be doing.”

Then again, consider the gubernatorial race in Maryland, where the Democratic Governors Association poured over a million dollars into promoting Republican candidate Dan Cox, who, according to Vanity Fair’s Chris Smith, “pushed for Donald Trump to seize voting machines in the month after the 2020 presidential election, and . . . pals around with QAnon supporters.”

“It’s crazy like a fox,” says Cornell Belcher, a strategist who worked on both of Barack Obama’s winning presidential campaigns. “If you can impact the odds of winning on the front end, it’s hard to argue with doing it. If I have the ability to run against someone who I know is going to be the weaker opponent, I shouldn’t do that? That’s la-la land shit. The likelihood that Maryland will go Republican in November is a lot less today than it would have been if the Hogan-like candidate had prevailed in that primary.”

The jury’s still out, however, at the Jan. 6 Committee, as Alayna Treene noted in Axios Sneak Peek.

Representative sample:

Between the lines: Public backlash intensified yesterday when it emerged that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is boosting an election denier in his primary against Rep. Peter Meijer (R-Mich.) — one of 10 House Republicans who voted to impeach Trump for his role in the Jan. 6 Capitol riot.

  • Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-N.Y.), the chair of the DCCC, said on MSNBC this morning: “If you’re talking about trying to pick your opponent, you might see us do that, sure. And I think sometimes it does make sense.”

Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), vice chair of the Jan. 6 committee, told Axios: “No party, Democrat or Republican, should be promoting candidates who perpetuate lies about the 2020 election and try to undermine our democracy.”

Karma being the corkscrew that it is, there’s a non-zero chance that at least one of the MAGAts Democrats have been boosting – call the roll: Doug Mastriano in the Pennsylvania gubernatorial race; Darren Bailey in the Illinois governor’s race; John Gibbs; Dan Cox – will squeak through in November.

As the feller says, lie down with dogs, get up with fleas.

Flea powder sold separately.

Wait – A GOP Candidate’s Ad Compares Anthony Fauci to Osama bin Laden?

Well the Doc opened up the old mailbag today and here’s what poured out.

Dear Dr. Ads,

There I was, minding my own business and reading Bess Levin’s excellent newsletter in Vanity Fair, when I came across this item.

Wanna defend your fellow doctor here, Doc?

– Fauci Grouchy

Dear Grouchy,

First, we need to post this Federally mandated disclosure:

Warning: Dr. Ads is not a licensed physician

Whatever.

Anyway, here’s the spot.

Rolling Stone’s Nikki McCann Ramirez provides this helpful description.

The ad compares President Joe Biden and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi — as well as perceived cultural enemies like Tony Fauci — to foreign terror groups and totalitarian regimes.

Standing in what looks like a shooting range decked out in tactical gear and wearing clothes intended to resemble military fatigues, Mills cites his background as a veteran who “fought tyranny” and governments “forcing citizens to cover their faces” with burqas. “In America, our enemy is different but their objective is the same,” says Mills, “Total. Government. Control.”

(The irony of a post-Roe, anti-abortion rights Republican comparing Democrats to a regime imposing religious controls over woman is, well, a bit much.)

At least the ad doesn’t wonder why we’ve never seen Fauci and bin Laden in the same room.

Ramirez also notes that Mills previously ran this ad, in which he “[suggests] he would tear gas members of the media.”

Given the results of the latest poll in that race, as Jacob Ogles at Florida Politics reports, the next tears you see might be streaming down the cheeks of Cory Mills.

A new poll released by a conservative group shows Anthony Sabatini leading the GOP field in Florida’s 7th Congressional District.

U.S. Term Limits published results from RMG Research, run by conservative pollster Scott Rasmussen, on Republicans seeking the Central Florida seat. Pollsters found 23% of likely Republican Primary voters plan to support Sabatini, a state Representative from Howey-in-the-Hills.

Behind him is Cory Mills, an Iraq and Afghanistan veteran and the choice for 16% of voters. Brady Duke, the fundraising leader through June, comes in third place in this poll, with 9% of the vote.

Forty-two percent of voters, according to that poll, remain undecided.

Gary Fineout at Politico’s Florida Playbook, however, cites a poll that paints a different picture.

[A] crowded GOP primary in Florida’s 7th District shows Cory Mills, a combat veteran and defense consultant, pulling in 23 percent to 21 percent for state Rep. Anthony Sabatini. Brady Duke, a former U.S, Navy SEAL sniper and minister, has 8 percent. The poll shows that there was still 40 percent undecided in the contest.

The Doc’s diagnosis: Cory Mills better hope most of those undecideds are just as Fauci grouchy as our faithful correspondent, yeah?

Why Did Josh Mandel Go to Someone Even Less Likable Than Himself for a Senate Primary Endorsement?

Well the Doc opened up the old mailbag today and here’s what poured out.

Dear Dr. Ads,

There I was, minding my own business and reading Punchbowl News AM, when I came across this item.

Well, he doesn’t have Donald Trump’s endorsement, but Josh Mandel has a new spot with Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), who urges Ohio voters to send the former Buckeye State treasurer to the Senate. Mandel is seeking the GOP nomination for the Ohio Senate seat. The spot is running statewide.

Wait, what? 

Josh Mandel, a candidate too creepy for Trump, went to Ted Cruz, a politician too creepy for his entire life, for an endorsement?

How does that work, Doc?

– Buckeyed

Dear Buckeyed,

First, let’s establish the mala fides of the fulsome twosome: Here are the search results for Josh Mandel gutter and the search results for Ted Cruz hated.

As for the despicable in support of the deplorable . . .

You might ask, why would Mandel tout an endorsement from a universally reviled politician? This Associated Press piece by Jill Colvin and Julie Carr Smyth might provide a clue.

Josh Mandel runs Ohio GOP Senate campaign ‘through churches’

NORTH OLMSTED, Ohio (AP) — Before digging into his six-egg omelet at a bustling northeast Ohio diner, Republican Senate candidate Josh Mandel stopped to bow his head.

“Bless our food, our time, our conversation, in Jesus’ name,” said Pastor J.C. Church, who joined Mandel after a campaign event at a local church. ”Amen.”

The scene encapsulated Mandel’s campaign strategy as he competes in a crowded field of Republican contenders ahead of Ohio’s May 3 primary. He is a Jewish candidate who makes no secret of his faith, but who is centering his campaign around evangelical churches as he tries to win over religious, conservative voters.

(A six-egg omelet? If that’s not the Christiaan Barnard Special, the Doc doesn’t know what is.)

There’s no doubt Cruz is popular with evangelicals, but Mandel might want to consider a little Cruz control after the Texas solon attacked a high-profile opponent of Florida’s Don’t Say Gay bill on his latest podcast, as the redoubtable Bess Levin detailed in Vanity Fair.

Senator Ted Cruz . . . recently suggested that because Disney decided to speak out against the bigoted Florida legislation—after receiving backlash from its employees for initially refusing to do so—it’s obviously going to introduce NC-17 story lines to its children’s programming.

In an extremely weird set of remarks, even for him, the Texas lawmaker opined at a live recording of his podcast, Verdict With Ted Cruz: “I think there are people who are misguided, trying to drive, you know, Disney stepping in, saying, you know, in every episode now they’re gonna have, you know, Mickey and Pluto going at it. Like, really? It’s just like, come on guys, these are kids, and you know, you could always shift to Cinemax if you want that.

And that’s not even Mandel’s biggest problem. The Cruz endorsement clearly falls within the knife-to-a-gunfight category, as this new spot from opponent JD Vance illustrates.

Donald Trump’s endorsement has helped Vance reopen the money spigots from his sugar daddy, Peter Thiel – the tech  billionaire who bankrolled Vance early, then ghosted him – as Politico’s Alex Isenstadt reported.

Vance parlays Trump endorsement into new Thiel money

Ohio Republican J.D. Vance is cashing in on his endorsement from former President Donald Trump with a major new super PAC donation from billionaire tech investor Peter Thiel.

Thiel has donated $3.5 million to Protect Ohio Values, the super PAC backing Vance, according to a person familiar with the contribution — part of a broader tranche of money that has come in to support the Senate candidate after last week’s Trump endorsement, which shook up a crowded and competitive race for the GOP nomination.

(For those of you keeping score at home, both Vance and Mandel have felt compelled to run ads proclaiming “I’m not a racist,” which pretty much speaks for itself. A third candidate – Cleveland businessman Mike Gibbons – conveniently rounds out the primary’s racism trifecta.)

Here’s where the race stood, according to Real Clear Politics, as of April 14th.

We’ll soon see if a Trump endorsement is the right prescription for getting JD Vance over the hump. The Ohio primary is May 3rd.

How Can You Tell If Sarah Huckabee Sanders Is Lying in Her Campaign Ads?

Well the Doc opened up the old mailbag today and here’s what poured out.

Dear Dr. Ads.

There I was, minding my own business and scrolling through Punchbowl News AM when I came across this item in the newsletter’s Tally section, which tracks the latest 2022 campaign ads.

Arkansas GOP gubernatorial candidate Sarah Huckabee Sanders compares the White House press corps to her unruly children and takes a shot at CNN in her latest ad.

“As White House press secretary, I had to say no. A lot,” Sanders says in the ad. “Being a mom to young kids was the perfect training.”

Sanders also pledges to oppose President Joe Biden’s “radical” agenda and advocates for “good schools, lower taxes and higher-paying jobs.” Huckabee Sanders will very likely be the next governor of Arkansas, so we’re keeping a close eye on how she positions herself.

To be honest, Doc, I didn’t know much of anything about Huckabee Sanders, but when I Googled her, this 2019 Vanity Fair piece by Bess Levin – headline: “As Sarah Sanders Signs Off, A Look Back At Her Biggest Lies” – popped up. Here’s a representative sample.

So I gotta ask, Doc – how do we know if Huckabee Sanders is lying in her campaign ads?

– Huckaboo

Dear Huckaboo,

It’s tempting, of course, to answer your question, “because her lips are moving.” At least that was the case when Huckabee Sanders was the mouthpiece for the Capo di Tutti Liars, Donald J. Trump, as you astutely noted.

But let’s take a step back and look at her latest TV spot.

Here’s the funny thing: Huckabee Sanders compares the White House press corps to a bunch of rambunctious kids, but in reality it’s she who fits the age-old juvenile stereotype: Kids who lie about what they’ve done to avoid the consequences.

She even lies about lying, as Scott Martelle noted in this 2019 Los Angeles Times op-ed.

Soup to nuts graf:

Sarah Huckabee Sanders, who has never found a fact she couldn’t twist, denied Friday morning that there’s a culture of lying at the White House.

The Doc’s diagnosis: Caveat videntium when it comes to any Sarah Hucksterbee Sanders ad in her quest for the Arkansas corner office.