Tag Archives: Nicholas Nehamas

Should Joe Biden Drop $30 Million on Ads Now or Just Set That Money on Fire?

by doctorads

Well the Doc opened up the old mailbag today and here’s what poured out.

Dear Dr. Ads,

There I was, minding my own business and enjoying Bess Levin’s Vanity Fair newsletter, when I came across a link to this Politico piece by Elena Schneider about a new ad blitz for Joe Biden’s re-election campaign.

[The Biden campaign] will start a six-week, $30 million TV and digital ad buy on Saturday, aimed at drawing out the “full-throated” contrast between Biden’s vision for “where the country can go” against “Donald Trump’s dark, dangerous and chaotic vision for the country,” said campaign communications director Michael Tyler on a call with reporters Friday morning. The ads will target battleground states, as well as Black and Latino-focused outlets and channels.

I dunno, Doc – isn’t that like Macy’s running ads in March for a one-day sale in November?

– Ad Homonym

Dear AH,

The Doc has taken a dim view of presidential campaign advertising on multiple occasions, but this seems to be a special case for one particular reason.

Those numbers come from an AP-NORC poll conducted last month. But Biden’s problem goes beyond the mind-boggling fact that more Americans believe Donald Trump “has the mental capability to serve effectively as president” than he does. There’s also this from a new Wall Street Journal poll, as Aaron Zitner reports.

Some 73% say Biden is too old, at age 81, to stand for re-election, the same share as in an August Journal poll. By comparison, 52% see Trump, age 77, as too old to run for the White House, up 5 points from August.

Ouch.

Baked-in public opinion like that can’t be turned around overnight, so it makes sense for Biden to get crackin’ now. And his first TV spot goes right to the heart of the matter.

The ad hits many of  Biden’s high points: Covid response, infrastructure investment, climate change reform, job growth. It also hits several of Trump’s low points, including that “he took away women’s right to choose.”

The spot ends with an outtake, as Nicholas Nehamas notes in the New York Times.

After the standard announcement that Mr. Biden has approved the message, a voice off-camera asks him to do one more take.

“Look, I’m very young, energetic and handsome. What the hell am I doing this for?” Mr. Biden replies, flashing a mischievous grin before the screen goes black.

The Doc’s diagnosis: If Biden has any chance of defusing the time bomb underneath the Resolute Desk, this approach is probably his best bet for doing so. Given that pro-Biden forces will spend close to $1 billion on advertising in the next eight months, the current $30 million ad buy is a decent way to prime the pump.

Will Any Voters Really Care About Biden’s Ad Attacking Trump’s NATO Attack?

by doctorads

Well the Doc opened up the old mailbag today and here’s what poured out.

Dear Dr. Ads,

There I was, minding my own business and reading Jim Swift’s Overtime post at The Bulwark, when I came across this item.

Happy Friday! The Biden campaign hit Donald Trump with a new ad about NATO. It’s a little wonky, but still, compelling.

Really, Doc? Trump’s trashing of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization is going to put a dent in his poll numbers when 91 felony charges, a sexual assault conviction, and an endless series of lies and grifts haven’t? Does that seem reasonable to you?

– Trump Stumped

Dear TS,

According to this New York Times report by Nicholas Nehamas, the Biden campaign “is running [this] digital ad in three states — Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — that have significant populations of voters with Eastern European roots.”

The ad notes that every president since Harry Truman has been a rock-solid supporter of NATO – except for Donald Trump, who wants to walk away from NATO and its Article 5 mutual defense pact. (The spot also notes that Article 5 has been invoked exactly one time: in the wake of the 9/11 attacks on America.)

Trump’s “you gotta pay” message to NATO members, the ad concludes, is shameful, weak, dangerous, and un-American. (It’s also the unofficial slogan of made mobsters, but why get technical about it. Not to mention Trump’s lifelong commitment to stiffing his own creditors.)

As NBC News White House correspondent Monica Alba writes, “[the] campaign is aiming to reach the more than 2.5 million Americans who identify as Polish, Finnish, Norwegian, Lithuanian, Latvian and Estonian — all NATO countries that share a border with Russia.”

That doesn’t seem like much, until you break down Trump’s likely electoral math: About 30 to 35 percent of his voters are ride-or-die MAGA who are largely there for the cruelty and the crazy; then you’ve got maybe 10 percent of voters who mumble “something something something Dementia Joe.”

It’s the next four or five percent who will decide the 2024 presidential election.  This Biden ad might tell us whether Article 5 works for  ballots as well as bullets.