Shouldn’t Joe Biden’s Campaign Just Set His Advertising Dollars on Fire?

Well the Doc opened up the old mailbag today and here’s what poured out.

Dear Dr. Ads,

There I was, minding my own business and checking out Politico Playbook, when I came across this item about Joe Biden’s campaign jumping on “[a] recent Suffolk University/USA Today poll [which] found that 59% of voters agreed that prosecuting the [January 6] rioters was ‘the appropriate work of the justice system.’” 

These public perceptions, of course, create a major opening for Biden. And, as we’ve written several times now in Playbook, the president continues to lean in. During his speech yesterday at Valley Forge, Pennsylvania, Biden cast his own reelection — and Trump’s defeat —as imperative to protecting democracy.

“Whether democracy is still America’s sacred cause is the most urgent question of our time. It is what the 2024 election is all about,” Biden said, a message that’s front and center in a new campaign ad that will start airing today in seven swing states.

Is pearl-clutching about threats to democracy really a threat to Donald Trump’s 2024 prospects, Doc? Or is Scranton Joe just whistling past the graveyard?

– Biden My Time

Dear BMT,

First of all, don’t say “graveyard” in the same sentence as Joe Biden. Beyond that, the Doc has previously noted that there are serious questions about the efficacy of presidential TV advertising (even if they’re raised by GOP chew toy Vivek Ramaswamy).

Regardless, Biden has so far failed to develop an effective advertising message. As New York Times reporter Reed Epstein detailed on The Daily podcast, his campaign recently spent $40 million on swing-state ads promoting Biden’s economic record – to little or no avail.

Epstein also pointed out that another potential ad theme – Trump’s 91 felony charges – is largely off limits. Biden can’t/won’t talk about the four separate Trump indictments because that just plays into Trump’s claim that the Department of Justice is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Biden Crime Family.

So what’s a fella to do? This, apparently.

Those people are nuts graf: “I’ve made the preservation of American democracy an essential issue of my presidency. Now, something dangerous is happening in America. There’s an extremist movement that does not share the basic beliefs in our democracy.”

The ad, which is paid for by the Democratic National Committee, is not getting a lot of love on YouTube: 97,000 views but only 2700 thumbs up. Not to mention lots of comments like these.

As Epstein noted on The Daily, voters concerned about threats to democracy are likely already in the anti-Trump camp, so Biden might just be whistling past the . . . voting booth with that approach.

The Doc is not in the habit of prescribing remedies for ailing political campaigns. But in this case, Joe Biden might want to forget surrogates like the oily Gavin Newsom and get himself a witch doctor to generate some good juju.

Just sayin’.

Is Presidential TV Ad Spending Really Idiotic, Like Vivek Ramaswamy Says?

Well the Doc opened up the old mailbag today and here’s what poured out.

Dear Dr. Ads,

There I was, minding my own business and poking around Xitter, when I came across this post on David Axelrod’s feed addressing the latest nonsense from Vivek Ramasmarmy – sorry, Ramaswamy.

Two questions for you, Doc – is presidential TV ad spending more idiotic than Vivek Ramaswamy? Or is it vice versa?

– On the Spot

Dear OtS,

This one looks like a photo finish, yeah?

Let’s start with Vivek Ramaswamy’s X-clusion of TV spots from his primary campaign.

Given that Ramaswamy spent $200,000 on TV ads during the first half of December, as NPR’s Ashley Lopez reported, presumably he’s had some kind of IQ boost in the past few weeks. Regardless, his campaign told NPR it hasn’t entirely stopped spending on ads.

“Our spending levels haven’t changed—we’re just following the data,” said campaign spokesperson Tricia McLaughlin. “We are focused on bringing out the voters we’ve identified—best way to reach them is using addressable advertising, mail, text, live calls and doors to communicate with our voters on Vivek’s vision for America, making their plan to caucus and turning them out.”

Yeah – that and going to six Iowa Pizza Ranches in one day might actually get you within 40 points of Donald Trump. Or maybe not, considering that some – like the New Republic’s Jason Linkins – think you might not even make it to caucus night.

As for how idiotic presidential TV ad spending in general might be, it certainly hasn’t paid off for the super PACs that have dropped tens of millions of dollars touting presidential primary hopefuls, as The Bulwark’s Tim Miller has painstakingly documented.

The Super PACs Are Worthless. Donors Should Stop Torching Their Cash.

SUPER PACS FOR SEVERAL GOP CANDIDATES challenging Donald Trump have raised hundreds of millions of dollars to help fund efforts to displace him as the party’s nominee—and they have absolutely nothing to show for it.

No progress. No signs of life. No movement. Nada.

The impotence of the super PAC efforts is an all-the-more-inviting target for ridicule when you consider that this entire strategic approach was discredited in the 2016 and 2020 presidential races. (I can speak from firsthand Jeb! experience about the law of diminishing returns on super PAC dollars.)

Case in point: The pro-DeSantis super PAC Nevar Back Down, whose $25 million worth of ads have gone over like the metric system, rocketing the Florida governor from over 30% in the national polls to 11.7% in ten short months.

So yeah, some presidential ad spending is in fact idiotic. But that doesn’t make Vivek Ramaswamy any smarter.