Tag Archives: FiveThirtyEight

Is Presidential TV Ad Spending Really Idiotic, Like Vivek Ramaswamy Says?

by doctorads

Well the Doc opened up the old mailbag today and here’s what poured out.

Dear Dr. Ads,

There I was, minding my own business and poking around Xitter, when I came across this post on David Axelrod’s feed addressing the latest nonsense from Vivek Ramasmarmy – sorry, Ramaswamy.

Two questions for you, Doc – is presidential TV ad spending more idiotic than Vivek Ramaswamy? Or is it vice versa?

– On the Spot

Dear OtS,

This one looks like a photo finish, yeah?

Let’s start with Vivek Ramaswamy’s X-clusion of TV spots from his primary campaign.

Given that Ramaswamy spent $200,000 on TV ads during the first half of December, as NPR’s Ashley Lopez reported, presumably he’s had some kind of IQ boost in the past few weeks. Regardless, his campaign told NPR it hasn’t entirely stopped spending on ads.

“Our spending levels haven’t changed—we’re just following the data,” said campaign spokesperson Tricia McLaughlin. “We are focused on bringing out the voters we’ve identified—best way to reach them is using addressable advertising, mail, text, live calls and doors to communicate with our voters on Vivek’s vision for America, making their plan to caucus and turning them out.”

Yeah – that and going to six Iowa Pizza Ranches in one day might actually get you within 40 points of Donald Trump. Or maybe not, considering that some – like the New Republic’s Jason Linkins – think you might not even make it to caucus night.

As for how idiotic presidential TV ad spending in general might be, it certainly hasn’t paid off for the super PACs that have dropped tens of millions of dollars touting presidential primary hopefuls, as The Bulwark’s Tim Miller has painstakingly documented.

The Super PACs Are Worthless. Donors Should Stop Torching Their Cash.

SUPER PACS FOR SEVERAL GOP CANDIDATES challenging Donald Trump have raised hundreds of millions of dollars to help fund efforts to displace him as the party’s nominee—and they have absolutely nothing to show for it.

No progress. No signs of life. No movement. Nada.

The impotence of the super PAC efforts is an all-the-more-inviting target for ridicule when you consider that this entire strategic approach was discredited in the 2016 and 2020 presidential races. (I can speak from firsthand Jeb! experience about the law of diminishing returns on super PAC dollars.)

Case in point: The pro-DeSantis super PAC Nevar Back Down, whose $25 million worth of ads have gone over like the metric system, rocketing the Florida governor from over 30% in the national polls to 11.7% in ten short months.

So yeah, some presidential ad spending is in fact idiotic. But that doesn’t make Vivek Ramaswamy any smarter.

Aren’t the Chris Christie Super PAC Ads Actually Telling It Like It Isn’t?

by doctorads

Well the Doc opened up the old mailbag today and here’s what poured out.

Dear Dr. Ads,

There I was, minding my own business and poking around Politico, when I came across Alex Isenstadt’s piece about Chris Christie kneecapping Nikki Haley in the New Hampshire presidential primary.

Chris Christie has singularly devoted his presidential campaign to tearing down Donald Trump.

But with the start of the primaries just a few weeks away, some top Republicans in New Hampshire say Christie is now positioned to help pave the way for Trump’s nomination by siphoning votes away from Nikki Haley, Trump’s closest-polling competitor in the state.

“Chris Christie is a monumental problem for Nikki Haley,” said Mike Dennehy, a former Republican National committeeman from New Hampshire who is neutral in the race. “They are both currently splitting the Independent vote, and Haley desperately needs those votes if she is to have a chance of knocking off Trump in New Hampshire.”

Drive Haley nuts graf: “Christie advisers said no one has asked the candidate to drop out. And there is no indication he is slowing down either. Tell It Like It Is PAC, a pro-Christie outside group, is running a $3.5 million TV advertising campaign in New Hampshire.”

Three and a half million to prop up a candidate the majority of Republican primary voters totally hate? They’d do better setting their money on fire and posting the video to YouTube. That would probably have a more lasting impact, don’t you think, Doc?

– Fired Up

Dear FU,

Chris Christie is the guest who’s really fun and entertaining until he refuses to leave the dinner party when the clock strikes midnight. Instead, he just keeps banging on about himself, as this press release from the pro-Christie PAC indicates.

With the New Hampshire primary less than six weeks away, and on the heels of a winning debate performance, Tell It Like It Is PAC launched its largest paid media campaign of the cycle in New Hampshire: $3.5 million dollars across broadcast, cable, statewide digital and radio.

Entitled “Unacceptable,” the :30 second spot . . . focuses on not only core policy issues important to New Hampshire voters (inflation and immigration), but also reminds voters of the bold distinction between Governor Christie and the other candidates in the race: the willingness to tell the truth about former President Donald Trump.

Here’s the spot.

Christie might in fact be “the only candidate with the courage to tell the truth and the experience to get it done,” but whatever “it” is most certainly does not include winning New Hampshire, never mind the GOP presidential nomination.

Not with numbers like these (via FiveThirtyEight) in this month’s poll from Saint Anselm College Survey Center . . .

. . . or these from American Research Group (which gets a C+ rating at FiveThirtyEight).

Roll your own from those polls. As for actually telling it like it is, listen to The Bulwark’s publisher Sarah Longwell on The Focus Group Podcast (around 18:19).

When the New York Times called me recently for a story and it was like, lots of people are saying Christie should drop out and like, why don’t you think he is or whatever. And I was like, I got I got all mad and I was like, because time is a flat circle. And everybody insists on playing out the 2016 primary beat for beat exactly like it was back then. And Chris Christie needs to drop out instead of doing what he did to Marco Rubio . . .

He’s just hurting Nikki now. Anything he does, it’s not helping her. I don’t know what he thinks he’s doing. It’s time. It’s time, buddy. Good job. I appreciate what you’ve done, but you’ve got to show now that it is more than your ego at work here and you are ready to actually be helpful to some of these other candidates.

Question is, does Chris Christie have the courage to get that done? Or will he just keep telling it like it isn’t.